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Guess the future of the Motor car and car battery market

Guess the future of the Motor car and car battery market

Suppose the global electric motor car is widespread up to 50% among the car market, the total amount of the global car battery market can arrive at 320 billion to 400 billion USD on 2030. It is almost the same as the turnover of semiconductor industry.


During the study of motor car battery industry, there are some similar facts between it and semiconductor industry, and both of them developed lead by technology and production expand. We think battery technology is a milestone of the competition of motor car battery, which is very similar with the business way of semiconductor industry that is to obtain better advantages through technology development. The main reason that Panosonnic become the only battery supplier for Tesla is also because it鈥檚 advantages on energy density and cost. While LG Chem and Sumsung SDI successfully come into Chinese electric motor car battery market due to their higher efficiency than domestic manufacturer. The manufacturer like BYD always committed to improve battery technology and cost as to compete with them.

Meanwhile, we noted that the battery manufacturer also need to expand the production capacity as to obtain the cost advantages which is also similar with semiconductor industry. For example, BYD is the world鈥檚 #1 in the battery capacity for electric motor car which the total reach at 15.9Kgwh on 2016. But the super factories of Panosonnic and Tesla (Gigafactory) will produce 35KgWh. And the main production expand 2016-2020 is from the main electric motor car manufacturer like BYD, Panosonnic , LG Chem and SDI.

The competition pattern of motor car battery: Who is the next SUMSUNG?
At the present stage, the motor car industry is still not concentrate, and around 15 manufacturers can produce about 1KgWh which is almost the same as the beginning of this century. In storage industry, there are 3 super suppliers which are Sumsung , SK and Micron , the total market up to 77% around the world, and Sumsung get the number 1 with 36% alone. We anticipate that in the following 15 years which the electric motor will penetrate from 1% to 50% on 2030. We think LG Chem and SDI who have good technology and customer source currently may become the next Sumsung Electronic. If BYD can take the opportunity of getting the policy support from Chinese government to catch up and surpass in the competition? We will see.
Electric motor car: A virtuous speed reduce will help the development of the industry.
As estimated, the electric motor car market increase 363% in the year of 2015 due to the huge subsidy of government, more faster than we expected. With the cheating to get subsidy and unbalance on the industry structure ( over volume on special car), there is high uncertainly in the subsidy policy for electric motor car, as well as the electric motor car industry development.
We think the government will decrease the subsidy of electric motor car in 2016. Therefore, we expect the market will up 58% this year which is lower than last year. It will help to lead the industry integration which is certainly benefit for the leading companies such as Yutong , BYD.
Batteries: Structural shortage of Nickel cobalt manganate lithium battery
We expect the motor car will come to the oversupply situation due to too fast expansion in 2016. But the Nickel cobalt manganate lithium battery still be shortage because technology barriers and high demand to update the Lithium Iron Phosphate battery in passenger car and business car.
Battery material: More faster on Localization than we expected
Chine already produce the four main material ( cathode, anode, diaphragm film and lectrolytic), but still rely on the import on the advanced diaphragm film. Diaphragm is the most important part in the cost of battery which still face technology barriers. Therefore, it is a good chance for the local diaphragm manufacturer to replace the import during the price competition pattern.
We noted the price of cobalt is now on the low level. During the update of Lithium Iron Phosphate battery to NMC battery, the demand of cobalt will be sharply increased. As cobalt is a kind of rare metal which mainly from the unstable African country Democratic Republic of Congo, we anticipate the price will up in the future to the high level during 2006-2008 lead by the increase demand lead by smart mobile and Notebook.

Intelligent drive
In 2016 CES show, we saw the car manufacturer put more invest on the ADAS and pilotless drive. It will push the development of car used cameras, as well as the business use of artificial intelligence algorithm.銆怌ompiler: YSC/ Marketing Dept.銆

  YSC/ Marketing Dept.

2016-02-16

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